Mississippi State vs. LSU Predictions & Picks: Spread, Total – March 1

Published 7:58 pm Friday, February 28, 2025

Saturday’s contest features the No. 24 Mississippi State Bulldogs (19-9, 7-8 SEC) and the LSU Tigers (14-14, 3-12 SEC) matching up at Humphrey Coliseum (on March 1) at 3:30 p.m. ET. This matchup, according to our computer prediction, will result in a 79-71 victory for Mississippi State.

According to our computer prediction, LSU projects to cover the 11.5-point spread in its matchup against Mississippi State. The over/under has been set at 148.5, and the two teams are projected to hit the over.

Mississippi State vs. LSU Game Info & Odds

Date: Saturday, March 1, 2025
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: SEC Network
Live stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
Where: Starkville, Mississippi
Venue: Humphrey Coliseum
Line: Mississippi State -11.5
Point total: 148.5
Moneyline (to win): Mississippi State -800, LSU +540

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Mississippi State vs. LSU Score Prediction

Prediction:
Mississippi State 79, LSU 71

Spread & Total Prediction for Mississippi State vs. LSU

Pick ATS: LSU (+11.5)
Pick OU: Over (148.5)

Mississippi State is 12-16-0 against the spread this season compared to LSU’s 14-14-0 ATS record. A total of 16 out of the Bulldogs’ games this season have hit the over, and 13 of the Tigers’ games have gone over. The teams average 154.6 points per game, 6.1 more points than this matchup’s total. Mississippi State is 3-7 against the spread and 4-6 overall over its past 10 games, while LSU has gone 5-5 against the spread and 2-8 overall.

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Mississippi State Performance Insights

The Bulldogs’ +162 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 5.7 points per game) is a result of scoring 79 points per game (59th in college basketball) while allowing 73.3 per contest (221st in college basketball).
The 35.9 rebounds per game Mississippi State averages rank 24th in the nation, and are 3.5 more than the 32.4 its opponents record per contest.
Mississippi State makes 8.3 three-pointers per game (111th in college basketball), 1.1 fewer than its opponents (9.4). It is shooting 31.2% from deep (319th in college basketball) while allowing opponents to shoot 36.8%.
The Bulldogs rank 100th in college basketball with 98.9 points scored per 100 possessions, and 143rd in college basketball defensively with 91.6 points conceded per 100 possessions.
Mississippi State has won the turnover battle by 2.5 turnovers per game, committing 10.4 (101st in college basketball play) while forcing 12.9 (60th in college basketball).

LSU Performance Insights

The Tigers outscore opponents by 3.4 points per game (posting 75.6 points per game, 132nd in college basketball, and allowing 72.2 per contest, 194th in college basketball) and have a +94 scoring differential.
LSU ranks 115th in the nation at 33.1 rebounds per game. That’s similar to the 33.9 its opponents average.
LSU connects on 8 three-pointers per game (145th in college basketball) at a 31.4% rate (314th in college basketball), compared to the 6.9 per game its opponents make, at a 31.5% rate.
LSU loses the turnover battle by 1.1 per game, committing 12.3 (281st in college basketball) while its opponents average 11.2.

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